Pokémon pull rates: what they are and what the 2026 data shows
A pull rate is how often a rarity turns up in booster packs, like “one Illustration Rare in every 12 packs”. The Pokémon Company doesn’t publish them, so every number comes from people opening packs and counting. The size of that count decides how far you can trust it.
2026 sets we track
| Set | Released | Best data so far | Special Illustration Rare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Reign | Nov 6, 2026 | 80-pack pre-release sample | About 1 per 36-pack box |
| 30th Celebration | Sep 16, 2026 | Retailer and community counts | about 1 in 18 to 1 in 22 |
| Pitch Black | Jul 17, 2026 | Retailer and community counts | about 1 in 80 |
| Chaos Rising | May 22, 2026 | Retailer and community counts | about 1 in 83 |
| Perfect Order | Mar 27, 2026 | TCGplayer: more than 3,500 packs | about 1 in 81 (1.23% ± 0.36%) |
| Ascended Heroes | Jan 30, 2026 | 100-pack opening plus community estimates | Estimated 1 in 100–120 packs |
How to read a pull rate
Sample size is everything
If a rarity appears once in 36 packs on average, an 80-pack sample will usually show one to four of them. That’s the difference between “1 in 80” and “1 in 20” from luck alone. Rates for common hits (like ex cards) settle after a few hundred packs. Rates for the rarest cards need thousands.
A rate for a rarity isn’t a rate for a card
“One Special Illustration Rare per box” sounds generous until you want a specific one. If a set has eight, your chance of pulling the one you want is one eighth of that: roughly one in eight boxes.
Each pack is independent
Opening 36 packs at “1 in 36” doesn’t guarantee a hit. You’d miss about one time in three.
God packs
A god pack replaces the usual single hit with a pack full of them. They exist in some sets only, and they’re rare enough that large openings often find none. For Ascended Heroes, three sources point to somewhere between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 4,000 packs. See the numbers.
Is opening packs worth it?
On average, no: the cards in a box are usually worth less than the box. See are Pokémon packs worth it? People who want a specific card save money by buying it. People who enjoy opening packs should budget for it as entertainment. That’s equally true of online pack sites, where the operator sets the odds: see why a 90% buyback isn’t 90% back.
FAQ
Are Pokémon pull rates official?
No. The Pokémon Company doesn’t publish pull rates for English sets. Every figure you see comes from collectors and retailers counting what they open.
What is a god pack?
A booster pack in which most or all cards are high-rarity hits instead of the usual one. They’re extremely rare: for Ascended Heroes, reports range from about 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 4,000 packs.
How many packs do I need to open to pull a Special Illustration Rare?
It varies by set. Early Delta Reign data suggests about one per 36-pack box; Ascended Heroes estimates are 1 in 100 to 120 packs. Pulling one specific card takes many times more.
Are pull rates the same as odds on online pack sites?
No. Pull rates describe sealed booster packs. Online pack sites set their own prize tables and publish (or don’t publish) their own odds. See Pokémon pack sites compared.
Do Japanese packs have better pull rates?
Japanese packs are smaller and structured differently, so per-pack rates aren’t directly comparable with English packs. Compare per box, and per dollar, instead.
Sources
- TCGTalk: Delta Reign pull rates (80-pack pre-release sample) (third party)
- TCGTalk: Delta Reign pack calculator (third party)
- TCGTalk: Ascended Heroes pull rates and god pack odds (100-pack opening) (third party)
- TCGplayer: Pokémon TCG Ascended Heroes pull rates (third party)
- CardChill: Ascended Heroes pull rates tracker (third party)
- Samurai Sword Tokyo: 2026 set release schedule (third party)
- Bill’s Archive: release calendar (third party)